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178th Session

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Demographics, higher investment and the
future potential growth rate of the Irish
economy

Paul Egan, Kieran McQuinn & D´onal O’Shea

30 January 2025

The Irish economy’s recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) has been strik
ing with both economic output and the labour market registering significant increases
in activity since 2013. This resurgence in performance followed the sharp decline
witnessed in the economy during the period 2008- 2012. Furthermore, it drew com
parisons with the earlier growth observed during the “Celtic tiger” period. However,
the recovery in the economy has coincided with acknowledged deficits in both social
and physical infrastructure. A legacy of the post GFC crash has been a fall-off in
investment rates in the Irish economy. This comes at a time when there has been
an unexpected increase in recent population levels. We use a standard Solow growth
model framework to decompose the past performance of the Irish economy over the
period 1995- 2023. We then parameterise the model to generate long-run forecasts
for the domestic economy under a baseline and alternative scenarios related to pop
ulation growth and rates of investment. The paper finds that increasing investment
rates, even to rates below those at the peak of the Celtic Tiger era, would result in
output growth increasing by up to 0.9 per cent per annum above the baseline rate.

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The Potential Impact of Changes in Burden of Proof to Determine Suicide in Ireland

Gregory P. Swinand

12 December 2024

This paper considers the potential impacts of changing the burden of proof for determination
of death by suicide in Ireland. It reviews origins of the burden of proof standards for suicide, considers
evidence and pathways of impact, and then estimates the potential impact empirically using a
difference-in-difference (DiD) approach which exploits the quasi-experimental nature of the change in
policy in England and Wales versus Ireland. Findings suggest estimated increases of about 8-20% in
deaths attributed to suicide due to the change which would make suicide the leading cause of death for
a number of age and gender groups

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"Sectorally Concentrated? The Irish Economy in European Context"

Sean O'Boyle, Eoin Flaherty and Giselle Myles​

31 October 2024

This paper adds to our understanding of the sectoral interlinkages in the Irish economy and
how it relates to the wider EU economy. While the Irish economy is highly concentrated on a
GVA basis, it is much less concentrated on the basis of employment and input-output
interdependencies. Except for GVA, this level of concentration has not changed much over
time. The MNE and domestic sectors each account for close to half of economic output. Their
activity is very different but there is still a sizeable interlinkage between them. We also
examine the interlinkages of the EU economy. Increasing European strategic autonomy would
require greater manufacturing output. Our model suggest that central and eastern member
states would benefit most from doing so, relative to their size. Ireland would benefit seventh
least. Splitting the Irish economy in two, we find the MNE sector would benefit more than the
EU average while the domestic sector is amongst those to benefit least.

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177th Session

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“But what hope is there for a nation which lives on potatoes?”:
A Brief History of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland

Discussant: Patrick Paul Walsh (UCD) on 'SSISI at 200' Discussant: Patrick Paul Walsh (UCD) on 'SSISI at 200'
​

30 May 2024

“But what hope is there for a nation which lives on potatoes?”:
A Brief History of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland

Dr Shane Whelan
UCD School of Mathematics and Statistics

Discussant: Professor Patrick Paul Walsh (UCD) on 'SSISI at 200' a forward-looking analysis of SSISI

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Symposium on "The Role of planning in ensuring effective housing supply"

Professor Michelle Norris (Director, Geary Institute, University College Dublin)
Stephen Purcell (Director and Co-Head, KPMG Future Analytics)
Niall Cussen (Chief Executive and Planning Regulator, OPR)

25 April 2024

The symposium will include contributions from:

Michelle Norris. Michelle is the director of the Geary Institute for Public Policy and Professor of Social Policy at UCD.
Stephen Purcell. Stephen is Director and Co-Head of KPMG Future Analytics (in KPMG Ireland) and is an expert in planning.
Niall Cussen. Niall is the Chief Executive and Planning Regulator at the Office of the Planning Regulator (OPR) established by Government in April 2019

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Administrative meets survey data: measuring household indebtedness in Ireland

Laura Boyd and Tara McIndoe-Calder (Central Bank of Ireland

21 March 2024

The 2020 Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) marked
the first time that survey data from Irish households was supplemented with administrative data from the Central Bank’s Central Credit Register (CCR). Using household level data from the panel component of the survey, weighted to the full population in 2018, we develop a simple approach for estimating measurement error and applying it, find at least one third of households hold “revealed debt” worth almost 13 per cent of the value of total debt outstanding in 2020.

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Economic Geography and the Irish Border: A Market Access Approach

Dr Alan Fernihough (Queen's Business School)

25 January 2024

This paper examines the economic impact of Ireland’s partition, assessing market access losses using detailed geospatial data and multimodal transport network analysis. The study reveals that partition significantly reduced market access on both
sides of the border, contributing to population decline.

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The Regional Location of Indigenous and Foreign Manufacturing Establishments, 1929-1975 (Evidence from a repopulation of the Census of Industrial Production)

Professor Frank Barry, TCD, Michael Scholz, TCD

7 December 2023

Regional industrial location has been a matter of intense political interest throughout the history of the state. Details of the geographic distribution of manufacturing establishments are sparse however – particularly until close to EEC accession – as reporting of the relevant data from the Census of Industrial Production (CIP) was heavily constrained by the requirement to maintain firm-level confidentiality. Data pertaining to the location of individual industries are even scarcer. Our research identifies most of the manufacturing establishments with workforces of 100 or more in 1929 and at various dates through to 1975.

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Distinctive Features of the Irish Banking Crisis

Professor Patrick Honohan, TCD

26 October 2023

The paper reviews the causes, evolution and resolution of the severe property-related macro-financial boom and bust that crippled the Irish economy 2008-13. Among the distinctive features were a blanket government guarantee of banking liabilities, a run on the national banking system financed by a supranational central bank, and a sovereign-bank funding-cost doom loop. There were missteps in both the private and official sectors, at home and abroad, as the authorities felt their way towards corrective policies that were ultimately effective.

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