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179th Session

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International Comovements and Persistence in Irish
Inflation: A Nonlinear Approach

Adnan Velic

28 May 2026

This paper studies Ireland’s idiosyncratic inflation dynamics. We find that Irish inflation is highly susceptible to trends in international inflation. Our results indicate that international inflation’s gravitational pull strengthens over time, particularly in the decade leading up to the Global Financial Crisis, after which we see some signs of waning in inflation comovements. The results also suggest that goods are more responsible for higher speeds of convergence towards international inflation than services, which tend to exert more downward pressures. Adjustments in deviations from international inflation are found to be highly nonlinear. While shock persistence for moderate to large inflation gaps is negligible, half-lives are in excess of a year for small deviations from international inflation. We find that factors such as economic size and openness attenuate inflation gaps by enhancing comovements with international inflation. While the impact on idiosyncratic inflation inertia depends on the absolute size of the inflation deviation, it also relies on how covariates influence market frictions and thus the rate of adjustment for a given inflation gap. This implies that, in the case of opposing forces, the net effect hinges on the stronger of the two channels.

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The evolution of data needs for policy/research in Ireland

N/A

13 May 2026

Symposium to mark the donation of Roy Geary's papers to the UCD Geary Institute.

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Boston or Berlin? How does Ireland's tax and spending compare?

Niall Conroy

2 April 2026

It is often thought that countries can simply choose between a high-tax, high-spend model or a low-tax, low-spend one when it comes to fiscal policy. While there is some truth to this, the reality is more complex. Factors such as demographics and economic growth also affect the level of public spending and taxation.
This paper looks at the size of government in Ireland compared to other countries, taking these factors into account. At first glance, Ireland appears to be a low-tax, low-spend country relative to other high-income European countries. However, this is largely driven by Ireland’s relatively young population and strong economic growth.
A younger population means the government currently spends less on pensions and healthcare than it would otherwise. As Ireland’s population ages, spending in these areas is expected to rise. This demographic shift will gradually bring Ireland’s government spending more in line with levels seen in other European countries.

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Seventy Years of Irish Fiscal Policy: 1954 - 2024

John Fitzgerald

18 February 2026

This paper analyses Irish fiscal policy over the last 70 years, considering how appropriate the fiscal stance was each year, given the state of the economic cycle. It finds that fiscal policy was
generally pro-cyclical, aggravating rather than dampening fluctuations in economic activity. This
was damaging to the long-term interests of the population. In two periods, the 1980s and 2009-2014, governments had little room to operate
countercyclical fiscal policy. Instead, prolonged periods of austerity were needed to restore order to the public finances. The lesson from these two episodes was that inappropriate fiscal
policy, as well as other policy failures, can be very costly for the economy. Also, when serious
fiscal action is required to ensure government solvency, painful fiscal adjustment is better
implemented speedily, rather than dragged out over many years.

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An Economic and Tax Overview of companies with no Corporation Tax Liability

Yvonne Hayden

3 December 2025

Most Irish companies—around 55–60% between 2017 and 2023—report no corporation tax (CT) liability and the factors for this remain unclear. Using administrative tax data, this paper examines the composition, characteristics, and economic contributions of these firms. The results show that persistent nil-liability is common and primarily arises from loss carry forwards, capital allowances, and a large cohort of low-profit or non-trading firms, with patterns differing sharply across sectors and firm ages. Despite low taxable profits, many of these firms generate substantial labour demand and exhibit active investment behaviour. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing the resilience and inclusiveness of Ireland’s corporate tax base.

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Current and Future Waves of Technological Transformation: Potential Economic Impacts and the Challenges for Public Policy in Ireland

Dermot Coates, Harry Williamson, Kevin Daly, Keith FitzGerald, Neil Gannon

30 October 2025

The adoption of AI technology by industry could significantly disrupt our current understanding of “typical” economic activity. As AI comes to pervade more sectors and occupations over time, it is likely that this technology will give rise to challenges and risks but also opportunities and benefits. There is, however, a significant degree of uncertainty regarding how ongoing waves of technological change will impact the economy, including the labour market. Recent research has found that 40% of employment globally is exposed to AI and that this rises to 60% of employment in advanced economies but – if we are honest – we cannot know for certain the trajectory of emerging technologies. For this paper, we aim to make an initial contribution by analysing exposure and complementarity in tandem to better understand the potential impact across occupation types in Ireland. We find that Ireland is relatively more exposed to AI than is the case for other advanced economies. We also find that female workers in Ireland are more likely to work in highly exposed roles compared to males, that younger Irish workers are more exposed to AI than are older workers, and that both exposure and complementarity to AI increase in line with educational attainment.

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178th Session

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"Sectorally Concentrated? The Irish Economy in European Context"

Sean O'Boyle, Eoin Flaherty and Giselle Myles​

31 October 2024

This paper adds to our understanding of the sectoral interlinkages in the Irish economy and
how it relates to the wider EU economy. While the Irish economy is highly concentrated on a GVA basis, it is much less concentrated on the basis of employment and input-output interdependencies. Except for GVA, this level of concentration has not changed much over time. The MNE and domestic sectors each account for close to half of economic output. Their activity is very different but there is still a sizeable interlinkage between them. We also examine the interlinkages of the EU economy. Increasing European strategic autonomy would require greater manufacturing output. Our model suggest that central and eastern member states would benefit most from doing so, relative to their size. Ireland would benefit seventh least. Splitting the Irish economy in two, we find the MNE sector would benefit more than the EU average while the domestic sector is amongst those to benefit least.

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The Potential Impact of Changes in Burden of Proof to Determine Suicide in Ireland

Gregory P. Swinand

12 December 2024

This paper considers the potential impacts of changing the burden of proof for determination
of death by suicide in Ireland. It reviews origins of the burden of proof standards for suicide, considers evidence and pathways of impact, and then estimates the potential impact empirically using a difference-in-difference (DiD) approach which exploits the quasi-experimental nature of the change in policy in England and Wales versus Ireland. Findings suggest estimated increases of about 8-20% in deaths attributed to suicide due to the change which would make suicide the leading cause of death for a number of age and gender groups.

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Demographics, higher investment and the
future potential growth rate of the Irish
economy

Paul Egan, Kieran McQuinn & Dónal O’Shea

30 January 2025

The Irish economy’s recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) has been striking with both economic output and the labour market registering significant increases in activity since 2013. This resurgence in performance followed the sharp decline witnessed in the economy during the period 2008- 2012. Furthermore, it drew comparisons with the earlier growth observed during the “Celtic tiger” period. However, the recovery in the economy has coincided with acknowledged deficits in both social and physical infrastructure. A legacy of the post GFC crash has been a fall-off in investment rates in the Irish economy. This comes at a time when there has been an unexpected increase in recent population levels. We use a standard Solow growth model framework to decompose the past performance of the Irish economy over the period 1995- 2023. We then parameterise the model to generate long-run forecasts for the domestic economy under a baseline and alternative scenarios related to population growth and rates of investment. The paper finds that increasing investment rates, even to rates below those at the peak of the Celtic Tiger era, would result in output growth increasing by up to 0.9 per cent per annum above the baseline rate.

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Changing Patterns of Secondary Employment in Ireland

Harry Williamson, Dermot P.Coates, Shannen Enright, Karen Hogan

6 March 2025

Over recent years, Ireland’s labour market and economy have outperformed expectations and having successfully weathered the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, employment levels reached a record high of 2.64m by mid-2023. In tandem with this expansion of the workforce, the number of those employed in more than one job – or those with secondary employment – has also risen. By mid-2023, 3.5 per cent of persons in employment in Ireland worked multiple jobs, compared to 1.9 per cent in 2002. Despite this increase, Ireland still has one of the lowest rates of secondary employment in the EU27. In absolute terms, by mid-2023, 87,700 persons aged 15-64 years in Ireland were working in two, or more, jobs (compared to 30,000 persons two decades earlier). A further 5,200 persons aged 65 years and over were doing likewise, bringing the total to almost 93,000. Second (or indeed, third) jobs tend to be concentrated in the agricultural and services sectors with the latter having undergone significant expansion in recent years. This paper presents a detailed profile of those in secondary employment. It also considers the intersection between full and part-time work in both a person’s principal and secondary employment and examines patterns in the volume of hours worked.

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Who is lonely in the EU’s loneliest nation? A post-pandemic examination of loneliness among the adult population in Ireland, and associations with mental health

Dr. Gretta Mohan

27 March 2025

This paper investigates the prevalence and correlates of loneliness in Ireland, a nation identified as having the highest reported rate of loneliness within the European Union in a 2022 survey. While existing Irish research on loneliness has primarily focused on older populations and, to a lesser extent, young people, this study addresses a critical gap by examining loneliness across the entire adult population. Utilising nationally representative cross-sectional data from the Healthy Ireland initiative, collected in 2021 and 2023, this research explores the demographic and psychosocial factors associated with loneliness and its impact on mental health and quality of life.

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Symposium on "Big Tech and Big Data - New Frontiers in Regulation"

Taha Yasseri, Marco Bastos, Naoise McNally

30 April 2025

Symposium of the 178th session on "Big Tech and Big Data - New Frontiers in Regulation"

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​Presidential Address - Advancing Public Policy in Ireland: A Vision for Collaboration, Integrity, and Innovation

Patrick Paul Walsh

29 May 2025

Founded in 1847 amid a time of acute societal crisis, the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland (SSISI) has historically championed a whole-of-society approach to inform public policy, guided by its mission to pursue truth and improve society – ‘Our Pole Star is Truth.’. Today, SSISI continues to address contemporary challenges in Ireland by fostering stakeholder collaboration that focuses on: strengthening the bureaucratic side of Government to enhance legislative impact, promoting the use of official statistics for robust policy analysis, leveraging digital tools to improve the science-policy interface, adopting All-Island approaches to public policy, and empowering young public servants in economic, social, and environmental domains. The Society aims to connect academia with government, and other stakeholders, to bolster policymaking that prioritizes public welfare. Additionally, SSISI emphasises information integrity, advocating for trust in official data and peer-reviewed research amid rising disinformation. It underscores the need for public sector capacity to manage digital assets and develop human capital, promoting state ownership and innovation for the global public good.

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